Meteorologia spaziale

Velocità del vento solare Vento solare dei campi magnetici Apice radioflusso a 10.7 cm
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EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Issued: 22.11.2024 23:16 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4761
Valid From: 2024 Nov 22 1719 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 23 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Issued: 22.11.2024 20:35 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 21 1925 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 22 0355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 22 1845 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 125 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Issued: 22.11.2024 17:59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 22 1759 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1500-1800 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 22.11.2024 17:20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 22 1719 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 22 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Emesso: 22.11.2024 15:08 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 21 1925 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 22 0355 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 22 0530 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 125 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

SUMMARY
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Emesso: 22.11.2024 09:55 UTC
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 21 1855 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 21 2010 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 22 0305 UTC
Maximum 100MeV Flux: 7 pfu

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Emesso: 22.11.2024 09:50 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 115
Original Issue Time: 2024 Nov 21 1900 UTC

Comment: 100MeV proton flux has steadily decreased and is anticipated to remain below the 1 pfu threshold barring another event.

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Emesso: 22.11.2024 01:12 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 22 0112 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 23:36 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 114
Valid From: 2024 Nov 21 1851 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 22 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 23:36 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 589
Valid From: 2024 Nov 21 1917 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 22 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Emesso: 21.11.2024 20:10 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 21 1925 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 19:18 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 21 1917 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 22 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Emesso: 21.11.2024 19:03 UTC
Proton Event 100MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 21 1855 UTC

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 19:00 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 21 1851 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 21 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 18:59 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 112
Original Issue Time: 2024 Nov 21 1853 UTC

Comment: Correction being sent for correct end time. Should be 21/2359 UTC.

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Emesso: 21.11.2024 18:53 UTC
Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 21 1851 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 22 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 20.11.2024 04:52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 20 0452 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 20 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 19.11.2024 11:58 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 19 1157 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 19 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CANCEL WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 16.11.2024 12:04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Cancel Serial Number: 4757
Original Issue Time: 2024 Nov 16 0245 UTC

Comment: Incorrect date. This warning is canceled as of 16/1200 UTC.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 16.11.2024 02:59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 16 0258 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 16.11.2024 02:45 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 16 0245 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 17 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 14.11.2024 17:38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4755
Valid From: 2024 Nov 14 0540 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 15 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 14.11.2024 05:42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 14 0540 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 14 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 10.11.2024 23:07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4753
Valid From: 2024 Nov 08 1940 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 11 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Emesso: 10.11.2024 20:34 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 10 2015 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 10 2018 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 10 2019 UTC
Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 370 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 221 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Emesso: 10.11.2024 19:40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 10 1935 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 10 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Emesso: 10.11.2024 19:10 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 10 1908 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Emesso: 10.11.2024 14:46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 10 1445 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 10 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 10.11.2024 12:28 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 10 1207 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 928 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Emesso: 10.11.2024 12:27 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 10 1151 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 10 1206 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 10 1214 UTC
X-ray Class: M9.4
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S09E24
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Emesso: 10.11.2024 12:25 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 10 1203 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 10 1204 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 10 1205 UTC
Duration: 2 minutes
Peak Flux: 400 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 221 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 10.11.2024 12:07 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 10 1203 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 10.11.2024 11:46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4752
Valid From: 2024 Nov 08 1940 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 10 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 09.11.2024 23:20 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4751
Valid From: 2024 Nov 08 1940 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 10 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Emesso: 09.11.2024 13:38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 09 1334 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1200-1500 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Emesso: 09.11.2024 11:46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1951
Valid From: 2024 Nov 09 0156 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 09 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Emesso: 09.11.2024 11:46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 09 1142 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 09.11.2024 11:07 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4750
Valid From: 2024 Nov 08 1940 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 09 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Emesso: 09.11.2024 01:56 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 09 0156 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 08.11.2024 20:12 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 08 2010 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 08.11.2024 19:40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 08 1940 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 09 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Emesso: 07.11.2024 16:03 UTC
Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 07 1535 UTC
Station: 16

Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 07.11.2024 08:14 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 07 0535 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 281 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Emesso: 06.11.2024 14:50 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 06 1427 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 06 1438 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 06 1445 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.3
Location: S07E68
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 06.11.2024 14:35 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 06 1433 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 06.11.2024 14:04 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 06 1350 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 256 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Emesso: 06.11.2024 13:53 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 06 1324 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 06 1340 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 06 1346 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.3
Optical Class: 2b
Location: S09E17
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 06.11.2024 13:41 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 06 1339 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Emesso: 06.11.2024 09:09 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 06 0848 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 06 0850 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 06 0854 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.8
Location: N15W57
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 06.11.2024 08:51 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 06 0849 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 06.11.2024 02:42 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 06 0241 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 06 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

CANCEL WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 06.11.2024 02:41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Cancel Serial Number: 4747
Original Issue Time: 2024 Nov 06 0238 UTC

Comment: Issued in error for valid to date

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 06.11.2024 02:38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 06 0238 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 07 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 05.11.2024 16:01 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 05 1528 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 167 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Emesso: 04.11.2024 19:27 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 05: None (Below G1) Nov 06: None (Below G1) Nov 07: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Emesso: 04.11.2024 16:00 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 04 1526 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Nov 04 1538 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 04 1541 UTC
X-ray Class: M5.5
Location: S10E40
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 04.11.2024 15:41 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 04 1537 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Emesso: 04.11.2024 02:24 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 04 0134 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 04.11.2024 02:22 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 04 0128 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 307 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 03.11.2024 21:52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 03 2152 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 03.11.2024 21:32 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 03 2130 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 04 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 02.11.2024 23:06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4744
Valid From: 2024 Nov 02 1138 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 03 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 02.11.2024 11:52 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Nov 02 1150 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 02.11.2024 11:40 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Nov 02 1138 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 02 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Emesso: 01.11.2024 17:27 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 1910 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 28 1350 UTC
End Time: 2024 Nov 01 0735 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 364 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

CANCEL WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 01.11.2024 17:27 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Cancel Serial Number: 587
Original Issue Time: 2024 Oct 31 0008 UTC

Comment: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has decreased below 10 pfu and is no longer expected to reach event levels.

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Emesso: 01.11.2024 11:24 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Nov 01 1034 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 01.11.2024 00:06 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 31 2359 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 31.10.2024 23:54 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 586
Valid From: 2024 Oct 31 0000 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Nov 01 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Emesso: 31.10.2024 22:12 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 31 2110 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 31 2111 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 31 2124 UTC
Duration: 14 minutes
Peak Flux: 910 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 270 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 31.10.2024 22:01 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 31 2200 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Nov 01 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Emesso: 31.10.2024 21:38 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 31 2112 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 31 2120 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 31 2127 UTC
X-ray Class: X2.0
Optical Class: 3b
Location: N15E28
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 31.10.2024 21:16 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 31 2115 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 31.10.2024 00:08 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 31 0000 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 31 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Emesso: 30.10.2024 21:18 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded M5
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 30 2029 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 30 2053 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 30 2114 UTC
X-ray Class: M7.2
Location: N16E42
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered primarily on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth.
Radio - Limited blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for tens of minutes.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 30.10.2024 20:48 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 30 2047 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 30.10.2024 11:39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4741
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 1800 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 30.10.2024 02:38 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4740
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Emesso: 29.10.2024 21:42 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 27 0835 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 28 1350 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 29 1510 UTC
Maximum 10MeV Flux: 364 pfu
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 29.10.2024 21:42 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 584
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 30 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 29.10.2024 20:46 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 29 2034 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 29.10.2024 20:18 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 29 2018 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 30 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 28.10.2024 22:30 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 583
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 29 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Emesso: 28.10.2024 05:59 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 28 0559 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC

Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

SUMMARY
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Emesso: 28.10.2024 05:01 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2024 Oct 28 0446 UTC
Deviation: 48 nT
Station: CNB

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Emesso: 28.10.2024 04:41 UTC
Geomagnetic K-Index of 6 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 28 0440 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 28 1200 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 28.10.2024 04:28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4738
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1538 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 28 2100 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Emesso: 28.10.2024 04:28 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 28 0430 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 28 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Emesso: 28.10.2024 04:24 UTC
Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 28 0440 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 28 0540 UTC
IP Shock Passage Observed: 2024 Oct 28 0415 UTC

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 27.10.2024 23:55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 582
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 28 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 27.10.2024 14:55 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4737
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1538 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 28 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Emesso: 27.10.2024 12:20 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 27: None (Below G1) Oct 28: G2 (Moderate) Oct 29: G1 (Minor)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Upgraded 28 Oct to G2 and added G1 for 29 Oct.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Emesso: 27.10.2024 09:02 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 100pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 27 0835 UTC
NOAA Scale: S2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience small, increased radiation exposures.
Spacecraft - Infrequent single-event upsets to satellites are possible.
Radio - Small effects on polar HF (high frequency) propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 27.10.2024 05:55 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Extension to Serial Number: 581
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 27 2359 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

EXTENDED WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 27.10.2024 02:04 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 4736
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1538 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2024 Oct 27 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Emesso: 26.10.2024 20:39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 26 2035 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC

Active Warning: Yes

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

ALERT
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Emesso: 26.10.2024 19:29 UTC
Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 10pfu
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 1910 UTC
NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WATCH
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted
Emesso: 26.10.2024 19:03 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Category G1 Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Oct 27: None (Below G1) Oct 28: G1 (Minor) Oct 29: None (Below G1)

THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT

Comment: Potential glancing blow from the 26 Apr X-class event.

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

WARNING
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Emesso: 26.10.2024 16:38 UTC
Proton 10MeV Integral Flux above 10pfu expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1638 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 27 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
Predicted NOAA Scale: S1 - Minor

Potential Impacts: Radio - Minor impacts on polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation resulting in fades at lower frequencies.

WARNING
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Emesso: 26.10.2024 15:39 UTC
Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Valid From: 2024 Oct 26 1538 UTC
Valid To: 2024 Oct 27 0300 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 65 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes such as Canada and Alaska.

SUMMARY
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Emesso: 26.10.2024 08:11 UTC
X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 0557 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 26 0719 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 26 0756 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.8
Optical Class: 2n
Location: S16E55
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

ALERT
Type IV Radio Emission
Emesso: 26.10.2024 07:25 UTC
Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 0629 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY
10cm Radio Burst
Emesso: 26.10.2024 07:23 UTC
10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 0618 UTC
Maximum Time: 2024 Oct 26 0619 UTC
End Time: 2024 Oct 26 0623 UTC
Duration: 4 minutes
Peak Flux: 270 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 209 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

ALERT
Type II Radio Emission
Emesso: 26.10.2024 07:17 UTC
Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2024 Oct 26 0629 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 486 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Emesso: 26.10.2024 06:17 UTC
X-Ray Flux exceeded M5
Threshold Reached: 2024 Oct 26 0613 UTC
NOAA Scale: R2 - Moderate

Potential Impacts: Area of impact centered on sub-solar point on the sunlit side of Earth. Extent of blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication dependent upon current X-ray Flux intensity. For real-time information on affected area and expected duration please see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap.

Tabella

Data Radio flux 10.7 cm SESC Numero di macchie solari Zona macchie solari 10E-6 Nuove regioni GOES15 X-ray Bkgd flux Brillamenti
X-ray Ottica
C M X S 1 2 3
24/10/2024 197 138 1300 4 * 1 1 1 5 0 0 0
25/10/2024 209 157 1140 3 * 7 1 0 4 0 0 0
26/10/2024 238 181 1220 0 * 3 4 1 7 0 0 1
27/10/2024 246 198 1330 2 * 8 1 0 9 1 0 0
28/10/2024 255 288 1670 0 * 12 3 0 12 1 0 0
29/10/2024 266 220 2130 1 * 4 1 0 1 1 0 0
30/10/2024 270 200 2120 0 * 5 1 0 10 1 1 0
31/10/2024 270 187 2320 1 * 9 7 1 21 3 1 1
01/11/2024 256 210 2290 1 * 5 4 0 27 3 0 0
02/11/2024 251 242 2380 3 * 1 2 0 19 0 0 0
03/11/2024 241 220 2200 2 * 6 4 0 18 2 0 0
04/11/2024 242 191 1810 0 * 6 11 0 8 0 0 0
05/11/2024 245 149 1450 0 * 7 5 0 15 1 1 0
06/11/2024 260 155 1650 2 * 7 13 1 10 2 0 0
07/11/2024 239 164 1900 1 * 6 7 0 11 4 0 0
08/11/2024 231 167 1680 0 * 13 1 0 15 1 0 0
09/11/2024 221 176 1630 1 * 8 1 0 26 2 0 0
10/11/2024 231 121 1420 0 * 7 3 0 5 3 2 0
11/11/2024 182 138 1180 2 * 3 2 0 3 3 0 0
12/11/2024 172 116 620 0 * 8 0 0 6 0 0 0
13/11/2024 150 109 600 1 * 9 2 0 3 1 0 0
14/11/2024 147 96 530 1 * 6 0 0 1 0 0 0
15/11/2024 149 71 630 0 * 3 2 0 3 0 0 0
16/11/2024 140 71 540 1 * 8 1 0 1 1 0 0
17/11/2024 146 117 655 4 * 5 0 0 2 0 0 0
18/11/2024 165 118 730 2 * 16 10 0 8 2 0 0
19/11/2024 157 109 610 0 * 9 0 0 6 0 0 0
20/11/2024 163 113 650 1 * 7 1 0 1 0 0 0
21/11/2024 166 148 520 3 * 5 0 0 1 0 0 0
22/11/2024 179 170 640 1 * 8 2 0 7 1 0 0
Media/Totale 209 158 1318 37 202 90 4 265 33 5 2

Grafico riassuntivo

Brillamenti

Solar wind

Solar Wind

The solar wind is a stream of plasma released from the upper atmosphere of the Sun. It consists of mostly electrons, protons and alpha particles with energies usually between 1.5 and 10 keV. The stream of particles varies in density, temperature, and speed over time and over solar longitude. These particles can escape the Sun's gravity because of their high energy, from the high temperature of the corona and magnetic, electrical and electromagnetic phenomena in it.

The solar wind is divided into two components, respectively termed the slow solar wind and the fast solar wind. The slow solar wind has a velocity of about 400 km/s, a temperature of 1.4–1.6×10e6 K and a composition that is a close match to the corona. By contrast, the fast solar wind has a typical velocity of 750 km/s, a temperature of 8×10e5 K and it nearly matches the composition of the Sun's photosphere. The slow solar wind is twice as dense and more variable in intensity than the fast solar wind. The slow wind also has a more complex structure, with turbulent regions and large-scale structures.

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

Solar radio flux at 10.7 cm

The solar radio flux at 10.7 cm (2800 MHz) is an excellent indicator of solar activity. Often called the F10.7 index, it is one of the longest running records of solar activity. The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records. Reported in “solar flux units”, (s.f.u.), the F10.7 can vary from below 50 s.f.u., to above 300 s.f.u., over the course of a solar cycle.

Flares

Flares

A solar flare is a sudden flash of brightness observed over the Sun's surface or the solar limb, which is interpreted as a large energy release of up to 6 × 10e25 joules of energy. They are often, but not always, followed by a colossal coronal mass ejection. The flare ejects clouds of electrons, ions, and atoms through the corona of the sun into space. These clouds typically reach Earth a day or two after the event.

Solar flares affect all layers of the solar atmosphere (photosphere, chromosphere, and corona), when the plasma medium is heated to tens of millions of kelvin, while the electrons, protons, and heavier ions are accelerated to near the speed of light. They produce radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum at all wavelengths, from radio waves to gamma rays, although most of the energy is spread over frequencies outside the visual range and for this reason the majority of the flares are not visible to the naked eye and must be observed with special instruments. Flares occur in active regions around sunspots, where intense magnetic fields penetrate the photosphere to link the corona to the solar interior. Flares are powered by the sudden (timescales of minutes to tens of minutes) release of magnetic energy stored in the corona. The same energy releases may produce coronal mass ejections (CME), although the relation between CMEs and flares is still not well established.

The frequency of occurrence of solar flares varies, from several per day when the Sun is particularly "active" to less than one every week when the Sun is "quiet", following the 11-year cycle (the solar cycle). Large flares are less frequent than smaller ones.

Classification

Solar flares are classified as A, B, C, M or X according to the peak flux (in watts per square metre, W/m2) of 100 to 800 picometre X-rays near Earth, as measured on the GOES spacecraft.

Classification Peak Flux Range at 100-800 picometer
W/m2
A < 10e-7
B 10e-7 to 10e-6
C 10e-6 to 10e-5
M 10e-5 to 10e-4
X 10e-4 to 10e-3
Z > 10e-3

An earlier flare classification is based on Hα spectral observations. The scheme uses both the intensity and emitting surface. The classification in intensity is qualitative, referring to the flares as: (f)aint, (n)ormal or (b)rilliant. The emitting surface is measured in terms of millionths of the hemisphere and is described below. (The total hemisphere area AH = 6.2 × 1012 km2.)

Classification Corrected area
(millionths of hemisphere)
S < 100
1 100 - 250
2 250 - 600
3 600 - 1200
4 > 1200

Sunspot number

Sunspots

Sunspots are temporary phenomena on the photosphere of the Sun that appear visibly as dark spots compared to surrounding regions. They correspond to concentrations of magnetic field that inhibit convection and result in reduced surface temperature compared to the surrounding photosphere. Sunspots usually appear in pairs, with pair members of opposite magnetic polarity. The number of sunspots varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

Sunspot populations quickly rise and more slowly fall on an irregular cycle of 11 years, although significant variations in the number of sunspots attending the 11-year period are known over longer spans of time. For example, from 1900 to the 1960s, the solar maxima trend of sunspot count has been upward; from the 1960s to the present, it has diminished somewhat. Over the last decades the Sun has had a markedly high average level of sunspot activity; it was last similarly active over 8,000 years ago.

The number of sunspots correlates with the intensity of solar radiation over the period since 1979, when satellite measurements of absolute radiative flux became available. Since sunspots are darker than the surrounding photosphere it might be expected that more sunspots would lead to less solar radiation and a decreased solar constant. However, the surrounding margins of sunspots are brighter than the average, and so are hotter; overall, more sunspots increase the Sun's solar constant or brightness. The variation caused by the sunspot cycle to solar output is relatively small, on the order of 0.1% of the solar constant (a peak-to-trough range of 1.3 W/m2 compared to 1366 W/m2 for the average solar constant).

Indici K



Oggi


0h
UTC
3h
UTC
6h
UTC
9h
UTC
12h
UTC
15h
UTC
18h
UTC
21h
UTC
2. 00 1. 67 1.



Data


Estimated Planetary

Estimated Planetary

Data A Indici K (UTC)
0h 3h 6h 9h 12h 15h 18h 21h
25/10/2024 3 1. 67 0. 67 0.
26/10/2024 14 1. 67 1. 00 1.
27/10/2024 10 3. 00 2. 00 1.
28/10/2024 17 3. 00 4. 67 4.
29/10/2024 12 3. 33 2. 00 2.
30/10/2024 15 4. 00 3. 00 3.
31/10/2024 9 1. 33 1. 00 1.
01/11/2024 7 3. 00 1. 33 1.
02/11/2024 13 0. 67 1. 00 1.
03/11/2024 11 2. 67 1. 00 1.
04/11/2024 14 4. 00 4. 33 2.
05/11/2024 11 2. 67 1. 67 3.
06/11/2024 10 3. 33 3. 33 2.
07/11/2024 9 1. 33 1. 00 2.
08/11/2024 11 2. 33 1. 00 1.
09/11/2024 32 4. 00 4. 00 3.
10/11/2024 25 4. 00 4. 00 2.
11/11/2024 10 2. 33 2. 00 3.
12/11/2024 5 2. 00 1. 33 2.
13/11/2024 7 3. 00 2. 33 0.
14/11/2024 11 1. 00 3. 33 1.
15/11/2024 13 3. 00 3. 67 2.
16/11/2024 8 3. 67 2. 67 2.
17/11/2024 8 1. 00 3. 00 2.
18/11/2024 4 1. 00 2. 00 0.
19/11/2024 9 1. 00 1. 00 1.
20/11/2024 9 1. 00 3. 00 3.
21/11/2024 8 0. 67 1. 33 1.
22/11/2024 12 2. 33 2. 00 0.
23/11/2024 10 2. 00 1. 67 1.

Middle Latitude

Data A Indici K
25/10/2024 2 1 0 0 0 1 2 1 0
26/10/2024 11 1 1 1 2 3 3 3 4
27/10/2024 8 3 1 1 2 2 3 2 2
28/10/2024 11 2 4 3 2 3 2 1 2
29/10/2024 10 2 1 2 2 3 3 3 2
30/10/2024 10 3 2 3 3 3 2 1 1
31/10/2024 8 1 1 1 1 3 2 3 3
01/11/2024 6 2 1 1 1 3 2 2 0
02/11/2024 9 0 1 1 3 3 3 3 2
03/11/2024 8 2 0 1 1 2 3 3 3
04/11/2024 11 3 4 2 2 3 1 1 2
05/11/2024 10 2 1 3 2 3 3 2 2
06/11/2024 9 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 1
07/11/2024 7 1 1 2 2 1 3 2 2
08/11/2024 7 1 0 2 1 2 1 3 3
09/11/2024 24 4 3 3 5 4 4 3 3
10/11/2024 15 4 3 2 1 4 3 3 2
11/11/2024 7 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 1
12/11/2024 4 2 1 2 1 2 1 1 0
13/11/2024 5 2 2 0 0 3 1 1 1
14/11/2024 10 0 3 2 1 3 2 2 4
15/11/2024 10 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
16/11/2024 8 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 1
17/11/2024 6 0 3 2 2 2 1 1 1
18/11/2024 3 1 2 0 0 2 2 0 1
19/11/2024 6 0 1 2 2 3 2 2 1
20/11/2024 8 0 3 3 2 2 2 1 2
21/11/2024 5 0 2 2
22/11/2024 10 1 1 1 2 3 4 2 3
23/11/2024 2 1 1 1 3 2

High Latitude

Data A Indici K
25/10/2024 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
26/10/2024 9 0 0 0 2 4 3 3 2
27/10/2024 14 1 2 2 4 3 4 3 2
28/10/2024 30 2 3 5 4 6 5 2 2
29/10/2024 14 3 2 4 3 3 2 3 2
30/10/2024 18 3 3 3 4 5 3 2 1
31/10/2024 4 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2
01/11/2024 14 2 1 1 5 5 0 1 0
02/11/2024 22 0 0 2 5 5 5 2 3
03/11/2024 6 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 3
04/11/2024 20 3 3 5 5 3 3 1 1
05/11/2024 19 1 0 4 5 5 3 2 2
06/11/2024 24 3 2 6 5 4 2 1 1
07/11/2024 11 1 1 3 5 2 2 1 1
08/11/2024 7 1 1 1 3 2 0 3 2
09/11/2024 48 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 3
10/11/2024 35 4 2 3 5 6 5 5 2
11/11/2024 23 1 1 6 5 4 3 2 1
12/11/2024 5 0 1 3 1 1 3 1 0
13/11/2024 13 1 1 0 4 5 3 2 1
14/11/2024 14 0 2 1 3 4 4 3 3
15/11/2024 22 2 3 4 4 4 5 3 2
16/11/2024 9 3 2 4 3 2 1 0 0
17/11/2024 14 0 1 2 5 5 1 1 0
18/11/2024 2 0 1 0 1 1 2 0 0
19/11/2024 21 0 0 2 3 6 5 3 1
20/11/2024 11 0 2 4 4 3 2 1 0
21/11/2024 7 0 1 3 3 1 1 1 3
22/11/2024 19 2 1 0 3 5 5 3 3
23/11/2024 1 1 2 4 4 2

About

The K-index quantifies disturbances in the horizontal component of earth's magnetic field with an integer in the range 0–9 with 1 being calm and 5 or more indicating a geomagnetic storm. It is derived from the maximum fluctuations of horizontal components observed on a magnetometer during a three-hour interval. The label K comes from the German word Kennziffer meaning “characteristic digit”. The K-index was introduced by Julius Bartels in 1938.

The Estimated 3-hour Planetary Kp-index is derived at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center using data from the following ground-based magnetometers:

  • Sitka, Alaska
  • Meanook, Canada
  • Ottawa, Canada
  • Fredericksburg, Virginia
  • Hartland, UK
  • Wingst, Germany
  • Niemegk, Germany
  • Canberra, Australia

These data are made available thanks to the cooperative efforts between SWPC and data providers around the world, which currently includes the U.S. Geological Survey, Natural Resources Canada (NRCAN), the British Geological Survey, the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), and Geoscience Australia. Important magnetometer observations are also contributed by the Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris and the Korean Space Weather Center K-index Watches are issued when the highest predicted NOAA estimated Kp-indices for a day are K = 5, 6, 7, or >= 8 and is reported in terms of the NOAA G scale. K-index Warnings are issued when NOAA estimated Kp-indices of 4, 5, 6, and 7 or greater are expected. K-index Alerts are issued when the NOAA estimated Kp-indices reach 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9.


More info
Origine dati: NOAA, Wikipedia

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